Saudi Aramco has issued one of the clearest warnings yet from inside the Gulf energy industry, saying continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could have catastrophic consequences for global oil markets and the wider economy. Speaking on an earnings call reported on Tuesday, Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser described the current disruption as the biggest crisis the region’s oil and gas industry has faced.
The warning carries weight because Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Reuters reported that roughly 20% of the world’s oil normally passes through the waterway each day, while the International Energy Agency said the strait carried an average 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products in 2025, with around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade moving through it. In practical terms, that means prolonged disruption there is not a regional shipping problem alone, but a global supply problem.
Aramco said it is currently unable to load oil from Gulf export points because ships cannot safely take cargo there. To keep supply moving, the company is drawing on inventories and redirecting crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, which Nasser said is expected to reach its full 7 million barrels per day capacity within days. Even with that rerouting, he warned that close to 350 million barrels could still be taken off the market.
The company also warned that the effects would not stop at oil producers or tanker operators. Nasser said the disruption has already hit shipping and insurance, and could create wider pressure across aviation, agriculture, automotive manufacturing and other industries if the blockage continues. That is a reminder that energy shocks do not stay confined to commodity markets, they move quickly into freight costs, airline operations, manufacturing input prices and consumer inflation.
Oil prices have already reflected that stress. Brent crude climbed to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday before easing back to around $91 to $92 on Tuesday after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the war could end soon. But the pullback in prices does not remove the structural risk highlighted by Aramco, which is that alternative routes are limited, spare capacity is concentrated in the same region, and inventories can only soften a disruption for a limited period.
For the Maldives, the warning is especially relevant because the country remains heavily exposed to imported fuel and external price shocks. The World Bank has said the Maldives is vulnerable because of its dependence on tourism and fossil fuel imports, while Maldives Customs data show petroleum products accounted for 21% of total imports in 2023. A prolonged Hormuz crisis would therefore raise risks for any import-dependent economy that relies on stable fuel, shipping and aviation costs.
Aramco’s message is essentially that the market may be able to absorb a short disruption, but not an open-ended one. As long as Hormuz remains constrained, the threat is no longer limited to Gulf exporters. It extends to airlines, shipping lines, food supply chains, fuel importers and smaller economies that have little control over global energy pricing, but must still absorb the consequences.
